Even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists convened to set the handle of the doomsday clock at 100 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been in the clock’s decades long existence. Amidst the reasons that normally dictate the handle’s movements, nuclear arms and the climate catastrophe, featured a new predicament, the recent events pertaining to outer space:
The arms race in space is underway. It could have been prevented decades ago. It wasn't.
The history of preventing the arms race in space resonates with that of preventing the climate catastrophe. It is long, perplexing, and sadly, full of failures. And now the time to take decisive action is rapidly running out.
Over decades the Earth orbit environment has become a vibrant arena of increasing importance to militaries, the private sector, science and the functioning of global society. This untold potential of utilising outer space (through communication, research and soon mining, colonisation and tourism), made possible by rapid advancements in technology, continues to attract more attention, intensifying competition in this sector. However, as the result of a few decades of human activities in space the Earth's orbits are already running into hazardous congestion and pollution issues.
The existing international laws remain ambiguous and outer space severely unregulated. This is rather problematic, as the colonial paradigm has yet to make room for more cooperative and inclusive attitude for the key existing and emerging "space powers". Until then, the rhetoric of "space control" and "domination", accompanied by increasing numbers of states focusing their efforts on the deployment of counterspace technology and the establishment of space forces is to be expected. The underlying danger of such conduct is that any form of hostile behaviour in space could engender dire consequences in orbit and here on the Earth's surface.
Mitigation of the climate catastrophe is not self-contained. It is intricately linked to the socio-political disposition of the world, as our only hope is cooperative, global-scale action. For that purpose dedicated assistance of the world’s major drivers of this climate change is desperately required. Much to our dismay they appear more preoccupied with endless power struggles, which are recently adopting a very dangerous tone, arms race in space included. Only by de-escalating global tensions and removing significant distractions from this underlying issue do we have any hope of preserving our planet and its orbits for future generations.